Air Pollution in the 1950s in London and in the 2000s in Beijing: A Comparative Study

Jacqueline CK Lam, Victor OK Li, Michael Pollitt and David Reiner

 

Project 1: Quantification Study of Air Pollution in London and Beijing

Investigators: Professor Victor OK Li, Dr. Jacqueline CK Lam and Professor Michael Pollitt

Summary: We will identify the most relevant and comprehensive air pollution data to capture air pollution in London in the 1950s and 1960s and in Beijing in the 2000s to today, and compare and contrast the air pollution trends in the two cities. At present, the UK database capturing air pollution in London in the 1950s contains only black smoke (TSP) data instead of PM (Ayres, 1997), whereas the database in China capturing air pollution in Beijing in the 2000s contains both API (Ministry of Environment, China) or PM2.5 data (US Embassy). We will transform air pollution data to common units, such as TSP, or PM, so as to compare air pollution generated in London in the historical period with air pollution generated in Beijing in more recent years. The aim will be to assess the extent to which the policies of 1950s and 1960s London towards air pollution provide a relevant point of comparison to the Beijing of the last decade.

Duration: October 2016 – March 2017
Deliverable:

1. A technical report documenting the methodology of data collection and results

Project 2: What Can We Learn from Policy Interventions in London?

 

Summary: Related to Project 1, we will identify whether and how major policy interventions introduced in UK/London, have played a role in reducing air pollution in London, and how such experience can shed light on environmental policy-making in China, where air pollution, for instance, in places like Beijing and Shanghai, seems to go up in the 2000s, despite the introduction of more stringent environmental regulations? Both quantitative and qualitative methodology will be employed. The aim will be to understand how historic policies in London were successful in reducing air pollution, how these policies compare to the policies in put in place in Beijing and Shanghai in recent decades, and what might be learned on effective policy design and enforcement? This study will draw on a number of principles of good energy policy including: the role of perception, quantification, well-being, public trust, role of the state, competence and parallels with healthcare.

 

Project 2.1 What can we learn from London’s air pollution regulatory intervention in the 1950s? A quantitative approach

Investigators: Dr. Jacqueline CK Lam, Professor Victor OK Li, Dr Paul Warde and Professor Michael Pollitt

First, using statistical models such as time-series modeling, we will identify whether major UK Clean Air Acts of 1956 and 1958 and other relevant regulations controlling air pollution released by coal-fired power plants and road vehicles, will have any impact on reducing black smoke in London.

 

Project 2.2 What can we learn from London’s air pollution regulatory intervention in the 1950s? A qualitative approach

Investigators: Dr. Jacqueline CK Lam, Dr. David Reiner, Dr Paul Warde and Professor Michael Pollitt

Second, using qualitative methodology, e.g. by pairing major incidents that occurred in London in the 1950s, (for instance, change in air quality, closure of coal-fired power plants, the reduction of road vehicles etc., industry attitudes towards regulatory implementation, public sentiments towards bad air quality in London), with the air pollution regulatory intervention that introduced in London in the 1950s, this study attempts to understand more deeply whether policy implementation in London was effective, and what had contributed to the policy effectiveness? Particular attention will be paid to phasing of the enforcement of legislation and the initial exemptions that were granted to polluters that gradually unwound into the 1960s.

 

Project 2.3 What policy insights from London’s air pollution regulations we can share with China?

Investigators: Dr. Jacqueline CK Lam, Professor Michael Pollitt, Dr Paul Warde and Dr. David Reiner

Third, based on results generated from the quantitative time-series modeling and the qualitative, historical study, we can summarize the key findings to provide a policy guide to the Chinese PRC Government how air quality environmental regulations in China can be further improved.

Duration: Apr 2017 – September 2017
Deliverables:

1. 2 working papers, submitted to EPRG Working Paper series. (1st paper to be submitted on 6th month and 2nd paper to be submitted on 12th month after the completion of this project)
2. Presentations in HKU and Cambridge University:
   
   1. Two joint presentations will be given at HKU-Cambridge Research Platform, Hong Kong, two times a year, during the period of employment.
   2. Two joint presentations will be delivered at EPRG/In Search of Good Energy Policy, during the period of employment in Cambridge.